Field Notes
Field Notes
Methodology articles and market commentary drawn from production finance and AI investment work.
A Financial Model Is a Strategy Test, Not Just a Forecast
A framework borrowed from Tribal Leadership for testing whether the resources, actions, and expected results behind a financial model actually connect.
Your Revenue Streams Probably Don't Hedge Each Other. I Ran the Math.
I tested the idea that crypto revenue streams hedge each other against three years of public data. The correlation math flips depending on how you run it — here's the method and what it means for forecasting.
The BIS Just Added a Fourth Scenario to the AI Growth Debate, and It's the One Nobody's Pricing
A read of the demand bottleneck framework in the BIS's June 2026 Annual Economic Report, and why it matters more than another GDP estimate.
The Macroeconomics of AI
A synthesis of the major academic papers on AI's macro impact and an investment framework built from the disagreements.
The Recurring Workbook Update
A discipline for monthly closes, weekly KPI rolls, and quarterly refreshes. Five-step workflow and six common pitfalls.